ONE YEAR after the Arab revolutions began with so much promise, the trends have turned darkly ominous in the two key countries at the heart of the Middle East — Egypt and Syria. At this time last year, many of us hoped we might be witnessing the start of the most significant and positive change in the Arab world since the creation of the modern Middle East after the First World War. But events are now moving quickly in the opposite direction, highlighting the sharply reduced influence of the United States, until recently the most important outside power. Horrific violence in Syria’s civil war and a looming showdown between Islamists and the military in Egypt point to a Middle East more troubled than stable and more violent than peaceful in the year ahead.
Dark days in Mideast test US policy
EDITORIAL | NICHOLAS BURNS
Egypt has always been the region’s most important country and America’s most valued Arab partner. But the military government that still holds power threatened last week to prosecute 19 Americans who have worked for US-government-supported organizations on democracy promotion. Despite a personal plea from President Obama, Egyptian authorities are refusing to drop these malicious and trumped-up charges. This crisis illustrates the limits of American credibility with Egypt’s generals, who have been given billions in US military assistance over three decades but now ignore us when American citizens are in trouble.
The resounding electoral victory of the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist parties presents Obama with another dilemma. If the new government puts the Americans on trial or weakens the Camp David Accords with Israel, congressional leaders will be tempted to cut off American aid to Egypt. But, as the Washington Post’s David Ignatius warned last week, this is where we need to take a deep breath and reflect soberly before we act. If we burn our bridges with Egypt’s new leaders before they take office, we may lose all hope of building even minimal confidence and trust for the future. America may need to rely more on its patience than power on the rollercoaster ride ahead with Egypt.