Some will take place in legislative chambers, including in Maryland and New Hampshire, and some at the ballot box, including in Minnesota, North Carolina and, very likely, a referendum in Washington on the bill the Legislature just passed by a vote of 55 to 43.
Advocates on both sides said that, long term, their side would prevail, regardless of the conflicting developments that have defined the issue for several years.
Washington embodies the conflicts. It is among more than 30 states that have passed laws defining marriage as being between a man and a woman, but it has steadily expanded rights for gay couples since 2006, the year it approved a wide-ranging gay rights bill. In 2007, it approved rights for domestic partners. In 2009 it passed a so-called everything-but-marriage bill.
Full marriage rights began speeding toward approval last month, when Gregoire said she would file the bill to make same-sex marriage legal.
The governor, a Democrat in her second and final term, had said that she did not believe the state was ready for same-sex marriage and that churches should play a decisive role on the issue. Gregoire’s bill, modeled after one approved by New York in June, allows churches and religious groups to choose not to perform same-sex marriages and to deny same-sex couples access to their facilities for weddings.
Recent debate here has been relatively measured. The Senate passed the bill 28 to 21.
“We very deliberately undertook an incremental approach,’’ said Representative Jamie Pedersen. “We believe we’ve benefited from taking steps only when we’re likely to be successful.’’
The issue may be more contentious elsewhere.
In North Carolina, voters will decide in May on a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Minnesota will vote on a similar measure in November.
Austin R. Nimocks, a lawyer who argues against same-sex marriage for the Alliance Defense Fund, noted that while some polls showed increasing support for gay marriage, voters had never approved it at the polls.
“I don’t see a shift in momentum,’’ Nimocks said.
Supporters of same-sex marriage say the Washington vote, including the speed with which it occurred, is evidence of growing acceptance.
Michael Cole-Schwartz, a spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, said that over time, supporters are able to show “no one else’s relationship is harmed but that these particular families end up more secure.’’
In Maryland, the Senate approved same-sex marriage, but it faces a fight in the House.
New Jersey lawmakers could approve a bill as early as next week, but Governor Chris Christie has promised a veto.
In New Hampshire, Republicans are leading an effort to repeal gay marriage. In Maine, a ballot measure will give voters the chance to approve same-sex marriage.
