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Romney could have edge with Fla.’s early, absentee voters

Campaign 2012

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Boston Articles
January 25, 2012|By Brian C. Mooney
  • The Romney campaign has a money advantage and infrastructure it hopes will stop Newt Gingrich on the ground in Floridas primary             Tuesday.
The Romney campaign has a money advantage and infrastructure it hopes will… (Scott McIntyre/Associated…)

If Mitt Romney has a firewall in Florida to stop Newt Gingrich’s momentum, it could be his organization’s vigorous effort to reach 475,000 Republican voters who have requested absentee ballots, and roughly half of whom have already voted.

Gingrich had the mojo after thumping Romney Saturday in South Carolina, but the Romney campaign has a money advantage and infrastructure it hopes will stop Gingrich on the ground in Florida’s primary Tuesday.

“The Romney team is the only one with any focus on absentees and early voting, and in a close race, that could provide the margin,’’ said Sally Bradshaw, a senior adviser to Romney’s 2008 campaign who is not aligned with a candidate in this race. “It’s difficult to know before the weekend what the race will really look like, though.’’

The Romney campaign began chasing absentee voters in early December, long before the Iowa caucuses, using phone banks and direct mail. In addition, the former Massachusetts governor has conducted four tele-town hall meetings - big conference calls - with voters contacted from the state’s list of absentee ballot requesters, according to Ryan Williams, a Romney campaign spokesman.

For most of that period, Romney was the front-runner and apparent winner of Iowa and New Hampshire, and the campaign is confident it banked a significant lead in early votes. However, a “recanvassing’’ of the vote in Iowa six days ago narrowly tipped that state to Rick Santorum by 34 votes, and Gingrich shot past Romney in Florida polling conducted after South Carolina shook up the race.

In addition to absentee ballots, the Sunshine State has early voting, which is well underway ahead of next week’s balloting. Five of the state’s 67 counties, including Hillsborough (Tampa), started voting early last week, and the remaining 62 started on Saturday, as South Carolinians were going to the polls. So a significant chunk of votes has been cast since Gingrich’s candidacy gained altitude.

Absentee and early voting have been very brisk, on a pace ahead of the presidential primary four years ago. As of Monday evening, about 301,000 voters had cast ballots - 212,000 absentees and 89,000 early voters - said Chris Cate, spokesman for the Florida secretary of state’s office. That’s 52,000 more than had been submitted as of a day earlier.

In the 2008 presidential primaries, nearly a third of Florida voters cast ballots absentee or at early voting locations, according to data provided by Cate.

That year, about 1.95 million, or 51 percent of registered Republicans, cast ballots in the presidential primary in which Romney finished second to eventual nominee John McCain. This year there are 4.06 million registered Republicans in the state.

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