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A good plan, well executed

EDITORIAL | Opinion

THIS STORY APPEARED IN

January 09, 2012|By John E. Sununu

(Jim Bourg/REUTERS )

EVEN A well-executed plan can divide Americans. To instinctive risk takers, careful planning looks boring and mechanical. For more analytical types, it reveals discipline, strategic thinking, and good management skills. So far, Mitt Romney has provided just that — steady, effective execution. His campaign telegraphed his intentions well in advance, efficiently implemented the fundamentals of organization and fundraising, and avoided big mistakes. Not very entertaining, but at the moment it looks like a pretty good recipe.

For the past six months, a continuous stream of national polls has distracted the national press. As each candidate took a turn at the top, a dual story line emerged — that Republicans were searching for anyone but Romney, and that his failure to break out in national surveys held some deeper meaning. These stories foretold a drawn-out nomination process. They couldn’t have been more wrong.

However inevitable a Romney win in New Hampshire might have seemed, only now are its implications becoming clear. Coupled with an Iowa victory, his nomination may be inevitable as well. No non-incumbent Republican candidate has ever won both contests. They fit together like pieces of staging, forming a framework for the weeks ahead. Iowa narrows the field; New Hampshire builds momentum. Momentum, coupled with organization and money, translates into victories in South Carolina, Florida, and beyond.

From the beginning, Romney’s game plan was straightforward. Raise the most money; stick to an economic message; deliver New Hampshire at all costs; and compete everywhere. The campaign apparently calculated that it could take the nomination without winning Iowa, where the strategy employed two basic elements: manage expectations and quietly put a ground game in place.

With local favorites Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty betting hard on Iowa, it was easy to sell low expectations. Rick Perry’s surge as Pawlenty left the race helped keep them low. Even so, the campaign never held back on the ground resources necessary to stay competitive. Romney trailed a series of challengers throughout the fall, but when headlines began to read that he “might just win’’ Iowa, the campaign saw an opportunity to deliver.

A competitive showing in Iowa was always a good enough springboard for victory in New Hampshire. Serving as governor of next-door Massachusetts gave Romney a deep reservoir of name ID and good will. But the broader demographic of the Granite State’s primary voters benefits him as well.