If Romney triumphs in South Carolina, it would send a powerful signal that the former Massachusetts governor can unite the party’s factions without a brutal ideological battle. If Santorum or another challenger can win here, it could foreshadow a drawn-out and divisive fight for the nomination.
The victor here will be able to claim that history is on his side: South Carolina has voted for the eventual Republican nominee in every election since 1980, when a conservative former California governor named Ronald Reagan vanquished his more moderate challenger, George H.W. Bush.
“South Carolina is where the traditional legs of the party are tested - by social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and national defense Republicans,’’ said Matt Moore, executive director of the state’s Republican Party.
This year, the contest is shaping up to be especially fierce because each of Romney’s rivals sees an opportunity to derail him in the state.
Gingrich, who for 20 years represented Georgia in the US House, has more than a dozen paid staffers in South Carolina, reflecting just how critical the state is to his campaign.
After being pummeled by ads financed by Romney’s allies in Iowa, he has launched an all-out assault on Romney, calling him a “timid Massachusetts moderate.’’
Perry, who flirted with dropping out of the race after a disappointing fifth-place finish in Iowa, is skipping the New Hampshire primary to stake his fortunes on South Carolina, where he says voters share his values.
Santorum, fresh off his near-win in Iowa, is courting the state’s large bloc of social conservatives and evangelicals. Last year, he made more than two dozen trips to South Carolina, more than any other candidate. Paul has a large military and Tea Party following that could also be important in the primary.
The question, however, is whether conservatives unhappy with Romney will finally rally behind one of those candidates or continue to divide their support.
