A Des Moines Register poll, a crucial final indicator of voter preference, said Romney was leading, with 24 percent of likely voters. US Representative Ron Paul of Texas was second with 22 percent. The newspaper poll’s results released last night were consistent with earlier polls by CNN/Time and NBC, which ranked Romney as a slight favorite over Paul, although the margins were statistically insignificant.
The Register poll revealed that former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum had risen into third place, with a small lead over Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry.
Romney’s forces in Iowa continued to dampen expectations even as the candidate revved up his campaign in Sioux Falls last night for his final two-day push. But a clear sense of momentum has taken hold here. Instead of posing a problem that needs to be explained away, Iowa may give Romney a first-in-the-nation caucus gift.
“We’re in a position now to finish on an upswing,’’ said Romney’s senior campaign adviser in Iowa, David Kochel.
If Romney secures a surprise victory Tuesday and then captures the primary election Jan. 10 in New Hampshire, where he holds a comfortable lead in the polls, he would be launched on a strong trajectory toward the nominating convention in Tampa.
That would make him the first Republican who is not an incumbent president to capture both contests in the same year. It would mean that Republicans, despite the grassroots strength of Tea Party activists, will be closer to nominating a candidate with a moderate profile and the best shot, many political analysts believe, of defeating President Obama in the general election.
Even finishing second behind Paul, the latest non-Romney candidate to rise, would give Romney a considerable Iowa bounce. Paul holds libertarian views that many consider extreme, and he is seen by mainstream voters and party leaders as unelectable.
