But there are optimists out there who see the proverbial glass as half full. They see an economy that is slowly growing, payrolls that are steadily filling, and many emerging-market economies that are still expanding, providing markets for US exports.
“The truth is, I guess I have an optimistic bias heading into 2012,’’ said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds, a mutual fund company owned by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. of Springfield. “There is a world of growth out there. There’s a lot of good stuff happening compared to [recent] years.’’
So which way will it go? Below are six reasons to be pessimistic about the new year, and six to be optimistic. Together, these 12 for ’12 could add up to another wild ride.
6 reasons for optimism
Momentum
The US economy grew at an annual rate of less than 2 percent in the third quarter of 2011, but recent data suggest the economy is picking up some momentum, and likely to expand faster this year. It might be just enough to kick-start more hiring by corporations and spending by consumers, economists said.
Moody’s Analytics, a forecasting firm in West Chester, Pa., estimates the economy will expand 2.6 percent in 2012. Jerry Webman, chief economist for OppenheimerFunds, a mutual fund company owned by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. of Springfield, said growth of 2.5 percent is possible this year. Both of those predictions are in line with a recent Associated Press survey of economists, who, on average, predicted 2.4 percent growth in 2012.
Jobs
While the US and Massachusetts unemployment rates remain high, there was some encouraging news on the jobs front in 2011.
US employers added 1.4 million jobs to payrolls through November, while Massachusetts employers added 51,600 jobs, according to the US Labor Department. Nationally, the unemployment rate fell nearly a point during the year, and more than a point in Massachusetts.
Other data suggested continued jobs growth in 2012: The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment-insurance benefits fell last month to the lowest level since April 2008.
