Fowler conducted a study of New Hampshire voters in 2000 and found that between the late fall and the election, 70 percent of voters had changed their minds, most especially, independents.
“What happens in this very volatile environment is oddball events end up playing a disproportionate role,’’ Fowler said.
Should Paul take a convincing first place in the Iowa caucuses - where some polls have him first - the win could strengthen support among New Hampshire independents, particularly those already leaning toward him, said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor.
If they voted for Paul in large enough numbers to vault him into second place, Gingrich would be pushed down to third, or perhaps fourth place - delivering a blow to him as he heads into the South Carolina primary.
“Then all the Republicans in South Carolina will say, ‘Gingrich is done and it’s either Romney or Paul, who I don’t like at all,’ ’’ Scala said. “Then it’s a big plus for Romney.’’
On the other hand, Smith pointed out that New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than Iowa Republicans and have rarely followed the lead of the caucuses - doing so only twice in recent memory, in 1992, when George H.W. Bush won the New Hampshire primary after winning the caucuses and in 1976, when Gerald Ford won both.
In Freedom, in a measure of independents’ capriciousness, conversations tend to slide to who ought to be running. One storeowner, who asked not to be identified for fear liberals would boycott him, said he is leaning toward Gingrich. The country, he said, needs a strong conservative. But given his druthers, he said, how about David Petraeus, the CIA director and former Army general, for president?
“You don’t have to be a politician to make things happen,’’ he said.
Sarah Schweitzer can be reached at sschweitzer@globe.com.
Correction: Due to an editing error, an article this morning on independent voters in New Hampshire incorrectly identified the home state of the late Senator Eugene McCarthy. It was Minnesota.
