Unaligned N.H. vote a test for Romney

December 27, 2011|Sarah Schweitzer, Globe Staff

FREEDOM, N.H.- Two weeks before the New Hampshire primary, GOP front-runner Mitt Romney holds a relatively narrow lead among independents - a critical voting bloc whose members remain largely undecided.

Romney’s lead among independents is seven percentage points, compared with his commanding 22 percentage point lead among all voters planning to cast ballots in the GOP primary Jan. 10.

That difference is especially important to Romney because he has portrayed himself as able to win the favor of independents and moderates crucial to victory in November.

“Part of the logic of Romney’s campaign is that he’s best able to appeal to independents who will be decisive in the general election,’’ said Linda Fowler, a Dartmouth College government professor. “If he can’t pull the votes of independents in New Hampshire, then that assumption becomes questionable.’’

Undeclared voters - who are commonly called independents, and who account for more than 40 percent of New Hampshire’s registered voters - don’t appear poised to derail Romney’s longtime lead over his rivals in New Hampshire. With 39 percent of the overall vote in the UNH Survey Center/Boston Globe poll released Sunday, he had a comfortable margin, and significant support among the independents. Among those independents who have declared their allegiance, 32 percent say they back Romney.

But the 51 percent of independents who remain undecided in the poll still have the ability to shape the race. If they were to splinter among the other candidates, they could erode Romney’s margin, and thus his momentum, and determine the winners of second, third, and fourth places.

The emergence of independent voters is keenly evident in a town like Freedom.

This hamlet on the Maine border was incorporated 180 years ago by a band of newcomers who, the story goes, were chafing under the conservative leanings of long-timers. They declared independence and called their new town Freedom.

Today’s inhabitants retain an aversion to partisan commitment. More than half of Freedom’s 1,025 voting residents are registered independents, among the highest rates in the state, and a point of pride for many.

“They like to think, not be dictated to,’’ said the town clerk, Libby Priebe.

This year, such thinking has led Freedom independents to uncertain junctures. Interviews around the town center and Freedom Market, a convenience store and gun shop in one, turned up no decided independents.

“Right now, in my mind, the Republicans are in total chaos,’’ said John Wolter, a 65-year-old independent who moved to his summer home in Freedom and works for a company that makes websites for private schools.

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