Despite a concerted effort to train Iraqi forces and help reconstruct the country, Iraq remains insecure and politically unstable, with constant threats from Shi’ite militias loyal to Iran, as well as Sunni militants such as Al Qaeda. Millions of Iraqis are still displaced from their homes, either living in exile outside the country or unable to return to their old neighborhoods after the sectarian violence of 2005 to 2007. Meanwhile, the balance of power in the region, which President Bush hoped to tip in favor of the West, is precarious and depends on many factors outside US control. Amid this gloomy picture it is timely to ask what lessons the war should hold for America.
■ The costs of war are not only high, but unpredictable. The Iraq war cost far more than originally estimated and it set off a chain of events that had far-reaching economic consequences. The invasion contributed to a sharp rise in oil prices, which increased from $25 a barrel in 2003 to a peak of $140 in 2008. The decision to finance the war entirely through borrowing added $2 trillion to the US national debt and significantly constrained our flexibility to respond to the nation’s financial crisis, which is by no means over.
■ Fighting multiple wars simultaneously makes it hard to succeed. The time and attention that military commanders were obliged to devote to Iraq distracted them from Afghanistan. Consequently, what started out in 2001 as a quick mission to topple the Taliban and eradicate Al Qaeda bases from Afghanistan turned into a decade-long war that seems destined to produce few tangible benefits for the United States. We will never know for sure what might have happened in Afghanistan had we not invaded Iraq, but it is clear that we seriously underestimated the difficulty - both militarily and politically - of waging two wars.
