“People are going to spend, but not that much,’’ said Christopher, whose firm expects retail sales to increase modestly, mainly due to inflation. On Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, “they’re going to be looking for a bargain… . They’re going to be glum and frugal.’’
The National Retail Federation estimates US holiday sales will increase 2.8 percent this year, to $465.6 billion, compared with 2010. That is smaller than the 5.2 percent jump of last November and December, but still slightly better than the average growth in holiday sales over the past decade.
The period between Halloween and New Year’s Day accounts for between 25 percent and 40 percent of retailers’ annual sales, according to the federation.
As retailers have struggled in recent years to attract holiday shoppers, many have broken longstanding traditions - for example, by opening on Thanksgiving Day - to extend store hours in the hopes of boosting sales, said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the market research firm NPD Group. Despite such tactics, Cohen added, retailers should expect the same challenge this season - especially considering the economic troubles.
“We’ve got a government that’s not really helping motivate the consumer. We’ve got a jobs situation that’s not getting better. We’ve got an economy and a job market that’s waffling,’’ Cohen said. Unless the government comes up with a jobs plan, a bailout, or a resolution for the debt crisis, politicians and officials could collectively become “the Grinch that stole Christmas.’’
Some big chains have already unveiled new strategies. Target and Macy’s, for instance, will open their stores at midnight on Thanksgiving evening - a first for both.
“We opened at 4 a.m. [Friday] last year,’’ said Elina Kazan, Macy’s regional spokeswoman, and this year, “our customers wanted to get an even earlier jump to their holiday shopping. By extending the official start of Black Friday, we give customers more time to shop.’’
