Skeptic finds he now agrees global warming is real

October 30, 2011|Seth Borenstein, AP Science Writer
  • In this Friday, Oct. 28, 2011 photo, Richard Muller, left, and his daughter, Elizabeth Muller, right, pose with a map from their study on climate at their home in Berkeley, Calif. A new study of Earths temperatures going back more than 200 years finds the same old story: Its gotten hotter in the last 60 years. Whats different is the scientist behind the latest study, Richard Muller. The California physicist was doubtful of what climate scientists have been saying - until he did his own research, partly funded by climate change skeptics. Elizabeth Muller, co-founder and executive director of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study, ran the study.
In this Friday, Oct. 28, 2011 photo, Richard Muller, left, and his daughter,… (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma )

A prominent physicist and skeptic of global warming spent two years trying to find out if mainstream climate scientists were wrong. In the end, he determined they were right: Temperatures really are rising rapidly.

The study of the world’s surface temperatures by Richard Muller was partially bankrolled by a foundation connected to global warming deniers. He pursued long-held skeptic theories in analyzing the data. He was spurred to action because of “Climategate,’’ a British scandal involving hacked emails of scientists.

Yet he found that the land is 1.6 degrees warmer than in the 1950s. Those numbers from Muller, who works at the University of California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, match those by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA.

He said he went even further back, studying readings from Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson. His ultimate finding of a warming world, to be presented at a conference Monday, is no different from what mainstream climate scientists have been saying for decades.

What’s different, and why everyone from opinion columnists to “The Daily Show’’ is paying attention is who is behind the study.

One-quarter of the $600,000 to do the research came from the Charles Koch Foundation, whose founder is a major funder of skeptic groups and the tea party. The Koch brothers, Charles and David, run a large privately held company involved in oil and other industries, producing sizable greenhouse gas emissions.

Muller’s research team carefully examined two chief criticisms by skeptics. One is that weather stations are unreliable; the other is that cities, which create heat islands, were skewing the temperature analysis.

“The skeptics raised valid points and everybody should have been a skeptic two years ago,’’ Muller said in a telephone interview. “And now we have confidence that the temperature rise that had previously been reported had been done without bias.’’

Muller said that he came into the study “with a proper skepticism,’’ something scientists “should always have. I was somewhat bothered by the fact that there was not enough skepticism’’ before.

There is no reason now to be a skeptic about steadily increasing temperatures, Muller wrote recently in The Wall Street Journal’s editorial pages, a place friendly to skeptics. Muller did not address in his research the cause of global warming. The overwhelming majority of climate scientists say it’s man-made from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Nor did his study look at ocean warming, future warming and how much of a threat to mankind climate change might be.

Still, Muller said it makes sense to reduce the carbon dioxide created by fossil fuels.

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