Belichick may say that statistics are for losers, and a lot of them are, but there are a few numbers every team looks at, and one has to be staring at him right in the face: yards allowed per pass attempt, which historically is one of the most accurate predictors for team and individual success.
The Patriots are allowing 8.47 yards per pass attempt this season. Not only is that worst in the league - barely edging the terrible Colts (8.46) - it’s the worst mark since the 0-16 Lions in 2008 (8.82).
The Patriots’ current mark is the 10th-worst in the NFL since 1970. In franchise history, it is only edged out by the ’89 (8.70) and ’90 (8.68) squads, which ranked fourth and fifth in league futility since the AFL-NFL merger.
Having a number that high almost always leads to failure.
Of the 45 other teams to post yards per pass attempts of 8.0 or more, just four have posted winning records, three advanced to the playoffs, and only the ’83 Seahawks advanced to a conference championship game. None has advanced farther.
The team to advance to the Super Bowl with the highest yards per attempt was the 1976 Raiders, who won it all after posting a 7.32 mark in the regular season (254th highest all-time).
In the years the Patriots have most recently reached the Super Bowl, they were tied for sixth in ’07 (6.4), tied for 14th in ’04 (6.9), first in ’03 (5.6), and tied for 17th in ’01 (6.8).
The guys at Cold, Hard Football Facts take it a step further with net passing yards per attempt. The Patriots are still last in the league (7.9) this season. They were fourth in ’07, 10th in ’04, second in ’03, and 21st in ’01.
The good news for the Patriots is there is still a lot of season remaining, so there is time to continue their improvement.
Considering how much passing is on an uptick this season, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt by the end of the season would seem to get the Patriots into the realm of postseason possibilities.
