Forecasters see a tough winter for most of US

Dry conditions could extend from southern California east across drought-stricken Texas and Oklahoma and along the Gulf Coast into Florida, and possibly north to Virginia.

Winter weather in other areas and the Northeast could go either way, the researchers said.

While the forecast is not guaranteed, it could be more bad news for drought-stricken regions.

Already, 91 percent of Texas, 87 percent of Oklahoma, and 63 percent of New Mexico are in extreme or exceptional drought, said David Brown, director of Southern Regional Climate Services for NOAA. The unusually dry conditions also extend into Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, he said.

Continued dry conditions will affect farming, livestock, and other pursuits.

It would take 10 inches to 15 inches of rain in some areas to make an appreciable difference, Brown said.

The forecast for December, January, and February looks to be cool along the West Coast and across the northern states to the Great Lakes. Wetter than normal conditions cover that area and extend a bit farther east and south, possibly as far as western New York and south to Kentucky.

The forecast for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions called for equal chances of temperatures and precipitation above, near, or below normal. Winter weather in these areas is often driven by a pressure change called the Arctic Oscillation, which is difficult to forecast.

If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.