Let’s talk about the price of oil. Where is it going?
Oil prices right now are very much driven by two things: One is this explosion of demand in China and the other emerging markets, and secondly it’s very much governed by what happens to the global economy.
We think, for instance, in the United States that we’ve already reached peak demand, and that demand is going to go down and not up.
But there is a kind of floor under oil prices, around $60 to $70. It’s derived from the cost structure and the costs of some of the more expensive new supply.
We’ve been talking about renewable energy technology for years, but sometimes it feels like we’ve made little progress. What are your thoughts?
Obviously, wind and solar and renewables are much more mature industries, mature technologies. Enormous progress has been made, and I think wind is sort of a conventional form of energy now. It’s still more expensive, and the imperative in renewables is to bring down the cost.
How long will it take for renewable energy to be on par with conventional sources?
So, in 2030, most forecasts still show oil, gas, and coal being primary energy sources. And my own feeling as I finished this book was that the really big changes will come after 2030.
There are long lead times. The energy system is very big, it’s complicated. Our $14 trillion economy depends upon it - it just doesn’t change overnight. Even shale [natural] gas, which seems to have burst onto the scene in 2008, the work on it really began in 1983. So it took a quarter of a century to make its impact felt.
How do the country’s efforts to build a clean energy industry stack up to the rest of the world? On innovation and technology, we are still the leader. But we also have this globalization of innovation. It’s not just something that is US-centered. But I still think, after spending time in China and other countries, there’s still something about our spirit of entrepreneurship and creativity and risk-taking that’s part of our national culture.
