The Ohio race is seen as fertile territory for Republicans in next year’s election, as the party attempts a second anti-Democratic wave that could help complete a takeover of Congress that began in 2010. The party needs to pick up just four seats to win a majority in the Senate.
Analysts say that 10 of the 23 contested seats held by Democrats or their independent allies are vulnerable to a Republican takeover, including in the crucial swing states of Florida and Virginia, as well as Ohio. Of the 10 Republican seats being contested, only two are considered vulnerable, including Scott Brown’s in Massachusetts.
“The numbers don’t lie, which is why you need to look at the Republicans as favorites to win a majority,’’ said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
In Ohio, the Senate race is listed by Cook as still leaning in Sherrod Brown’s favor, but only slightly. Analysts say they expect the race to officially become a tossup by next year.
A first-term senator with $3.5 million in the bank, Brown handily won election in 2006 but has seen his approval ratings plunge below 40 percent. He has amassed one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate, according to the National Journal’s ratings, a distinction he shares with several colleagues, including Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, and Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist from Vermont.
“It’s probably going to be a huge sticking point for a lot of Ohioans. On average, we’re a center-right state, and it’s all about appealing to that average voter,’’ said James Holland, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
Some independent voters, turned off by his liberal voting record, have already defected, polls suggest. But Brown remains confident.
“I get up everyday trying to fight for jobs. That’s my mission, and the election will take care of itself,’’ he told the Globe.
As Ohioans continue to grapple with a sluggish economy, the most significant threat to Brown is illustrated on the streets of Dayton.
