Special ops chief warns of al-Qaida 2.0

Olson said the group had already lost steam because of the revolts of the Arab Spring, which proved the Muslim world did not need al-Qaida to bring down governments, from Tunisia to Egypt.

“I think the death of bin Laden was an uppercut to the jaw,’’ Olson told a packed crowd, opening the Aspen Security Forum. “It just knocked them on their heels.’’

Olson echoed other administration officials who are predicting al-Qaida’s demise if a few more key leaders can be eliminated.

But the four-star admiral warned of the fight to come against what he called al-Qaida 2.0, with new leaders like American-born radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, who Olson said understands America better than Americans understand him.

“It will morph, it will disperse,’’ he said of the movement. “It will become in some ways more westernized, (with) dual passport holders’’ and “fewer cave dwellers,’’ he said.

Olson said others like al-Awlaki will probably refine their message to appeal to a wider audience, and seek ungoverned spaces to operate from, where they can smuggle in weapons and train their followers. He described how current offshoots like al-Awlaki’s al-Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen are cooperating with militants in Somalia, describing what he called an “invisible bridge’’ between the two.

Nor did the admiral write off bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahri. He said al-Zawahri had not yet put his stamp on the original organization, so U.S. counterterrorist forces do not yet know what kind of threat his leadership will present.

Olson agreed with the White House’s newly announced policy to strike terrorists through focused action rather than full-scale invasion, preferably by training and working with the host country’s forces. He cautioned against thinking raids would solve all U.S. foreign policy problems.

“Counterterrorism without counterinsurgency is a flawed concept,’’ he said, a riposte to those in Washington, who argue you can simply go in and kill the enemy without sending at least a small unit of troops to work with the country where the enemy is based.