A twister poses big challenge for meteorologists

A PATH OF DESTRUCTION

June 03, 2011|By Stephanie Ebbert, Globe Staff

The extreme weather that roared through New England Wednesday had been forecast for days. But the tornado that touched down in Springfield descended stealthily and suddenly, forming over the Connecticut River as horrified commuters sat in rush hour traffic on nearby Memorial Bridge.

“They’re the worst kinds of storms, always have been, always will be,’’ said Harvey Leonard, Channel 5’s chief meteorologist. “There’s only so much you can do with actual warnings of a tornado.’’

The storms’ wrath highlights the imprecision of a forecasting system that is stunning in its ability to predict and track storms, but unable to pinpoint precisely where or when a tornado will touch down.

“Until a tornado drops from the clouds, it’s a thunderstorm,’’ said Peter Judge, spokesman for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency. “If you watch this stuff on TV, it’s amazing how technology has grown to the point where they are able to predict, once it’s established itself, which direction, what speed, what communities are in harm’s way. But the problem is for that first community that it drops down on.’’

Although meteorologists are still assessing the damage to confirm the path and strength of the tornadoes that struck Western and Central Massachusetts, the preliminary investigation suggests that a tornado first touched down in Westfield about 4:15 p.m., said Robert Thompson, the National Weather Service meteorologist in charge of the investigation. The tornado then touched down in Springfield, Monson and Sturbridge. A second and possibly a third then struck Westfield and Springfield and Sturbridge again.

“This was not a surprise by any means that we were getting heavy-duty weather,’’ said Bill Babcock, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton. A tornado watch had been issued for most of the state by 1 p.m.

By 4:18 p.m., a severe thunderstorm warning posed the possibility of a tornado in Springfield and Chicopee.

But the tornado warning did not come for Springfield until 4:30 p.m., just two minutes before it touched down there.

“My warning was looking out the window and seeing it coming to our building,’’ said Tom Walsh, the communications director for Springfield’s mayor, Domenic J. Sarno, who watched the funnel cloud forming from a City Hall window where aides were monitoring the news. “The minute I saw the debris, I immediately recognized what it was and ran through City Hall to get down into the basement.’’

On Fox25 News, chief meteorologist Kevin Lemanowicz had just done a cut-in about 4:26 p.m. noting the storm could bring a tornado. “We could see it in Doppler radar before there was a tornado warning,’’ he said.

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