For GOP moderates, new hope in Iowa

May 27, 2011|By Matt Viser, Globe Staff

Pat Robertson at a victory rally in 1988 as he led Vice President George H.W.… (Peter Southwick/Associated…)

DES MOINES — Television evangelist Pat Robertson shocked the political establishment here on a cold February night in 1988, coming in second in the state’s GOP caucuses, with more support than the vice president, George H.W. Bush.

Robertson’s strong showing was fueled by a so-called “invisible army’’ of evangelical followers, who surfaced just days before the vote and discovered the power they could wield.

That army is invisible no longer. In a twist, though, split loyalties within its ranks could improve the chances of a more moderate GOP candidate like Mitt Romney, who stumbled here in 2008 and has spent little time in Iowa since. The former Massachusetts governor, who makes his first 2011 visit to Iowa today and will formally announce his candidacy Thursday, is up against the fact that, over the past quarter-century, highly motivated Christian conservatives have played an outsize role in a presidential selection process here. The reason is, at least in part, that they are a highly motivated voting bloc, willing to sit through an entire evening-long caucus meeting, rather than just commit to a five-minute stop at a voting booth.

“They’re going to walk through hell and high water for their candidate,’’ said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University and coauthor of a book on the history of the caucuses. “The problem with moderates is they’re not going to walk through hell and high water for anybody.’’

But recent history has shown the Christian right does not dominate Republican politics in Iowa across the board. A candidate focusing on fiscal issues last year defeated a candidate stressing social issues in a gubernatorial GOP primary.

And, with the current field beginning to solidify, it could be more difficult for the religious conservatives to unite behind a single candidate than it was in 2008, when Mike Huckabee — himself an ordained pastor — drew much of their support and won the contest.

Now Christian conservatives have at least five candidates courting them: Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, former Godfathers Pizza chief executive Herman Cain, former House speaker Newt Gingrich, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Those candidates could split the vote, paving the way for the more moderate Republicans to have an impact once again.

“Romney has a better opportunity in Iowa this time than he did in ’08,’’ said Doug Gross, who was Romney’s state cochairman during the 2008 campaign but is now unaligned. “2008 was a race where you had one social conservative in the race and multiple economic conservatives.’’

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