WASHINGTON — The first baby boomers will be old enough to qualify for Medicare Jan. 1, and many fear the program’s obituary will be written before their own.
A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that by a ratio of 2-to-1, baby boomers believe they won’t be able to rely on the giant health insurance plan throughout their retirement.
The boomers took a running dive into adolescence and went on to redefine work and family, but getting old is making them nervous.
In the poll, 43 percent said they don’t expect to be able to depend on Medicare forever, while only 20 percent considered their Medicare secure. The rest voiced mixed feelings.
Yet the survey also found a surprising willingness among adults of all ages to sacrifice to preserve Medicare benefits that most Americans say they deserve after years of paying taxes into the system at work.
Take the contentious issue of Medicare’s eligibility age, fixed at 65, while the qualifying age for Social Security is rising gradually to 67.
Initially, 63 percent of boomers in the poll dismissed the idea of raising the eligibility age to keep Medicare afloat financially. But when the survey forced them to choose between raising the age or cutting benefits, 59 percent opted to raise the age and keep the benefits.
“I don’t mind the fact that people may have to work a little longer,’’ said Lynn Barlow, 60, a real estate agent who lives outside Atlanta. Especially if there is time to plan, laboring a few extra years allows people to save more for retirement.
Bring up benefit cuts, though, and Barlow isn’t nearly as accommodating. “I started working when I was 16 and I expect a benefit after putting into it for so many years,’’ she said.
As Medicare reaches a historic threshold, the poll also found differences by age, gender, and income among baby boomers. For example, baby boom women, who can expect to live longer than both their mothers and their husbands, are much more pessimistic than men about the program’s future.
Medicare is a middle-class bulwark against the ravages of illness in old age. It covers 46 million elderly and disabled people at an annual cost of about $500 billion. But the high price of American-style medicine, stressing intensive treatment and the latest innovations, is already straining program finances. Add the number of baby boomers, more than 70 million born between 1946 and 1964, and Medicare’s fiscal foundation starts to shake.
Here’s the math: When the last of the boomers reach age 65 in about two decades, Medicare will be covering more than 80 million people. At the same time, the ratio of workers paying taxes to support the program will have plunged — from 3.5 taxpayers for each person receiving benefits currently, to 2.3.
