Global drug sales expected to rise

October 07, 2010|Linda A. Johnson, Associated Press

TRENTON, N.J. — Revenue from global prescription drug sales should increase 5 to 7 percent next year, reaching at least $880 billion, fueled by new drugs and rising sales in developing countries, according to drug data firm IMS Health.

The company’s annual forecast sees the market recovering a bit from this year, when sales are on pace to total about $845 billion, up just 4 to 5 percent over 2008.

The IMS Market Prognosis report attributes the expected revenue increase to the anticipated launch of new potential blockbusters, rising gross domestic product in about two dozen of the top developed and emerging markets, and strong economic growth in China and other emerging markets, which are spending more on health care.

Spending on prescription drugs next year is expected to rise, on average, about 16 percent in China and 16 other emerging countries now heavily targeted by drug makers. That’s because their governments have been increasing their spending on health care and they have a growing middle class that can afford more medicines.

Prescription sales will grow less in developed markets because insurers and government health plans, particularly in Europe and the United States, are working to hold down what they spend on prescription drugs.

Prescription revenues in Canada and in Europe’s five biggest markets — Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom — will grow at just 1 to 3 percent next year, IMS forecasts. In the United States, growth is expected to be about 4 percent, for a total of about $325 billion next year.

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