And those in between? Their outlook is bleak. Economists foresee fewer moderately paid factory supervisors, postal workers, and office administrators.
That’s the sobering message US workers face as they celebrate Labor Day at a time of high unemployment, scant hiring, and a widespread loss of job security.
Not until 2014 or later is the nation expected to have regained all, or nearly all, of the 8.4 million jobs lost to the recession. Millions of lost jobs in real estate, for example, aren’t likely to be restored this decade, if ever.
On Friday, the government said the August unemployment rate had ticked up to 9.6 percent. The unemployment rate has exceeded 9 percent for 16 months, the longest such stretch in nearly 30 years.
And even when the job market picks up, many people will be left behind. The threat stems, in part, from the economy’s continuing shift from one driven by manufacturing to one fueled by service industries.
Pay for future service-sector jobs will tend to vary from very high to very low. At the same time, the number of middle-income service-sector jobs will shrink, according to government projections. Any job category that can be automated or outsourced overseas is likely to continue to decline.
The service sector’s growth could also magnify income inequality, with more people either affluent or financially squeezed. The nation is not educating enough people for the higher-skilled service-sector jobs of the future, economists warn.
“There will be jobs,’’ said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard University economist. “The big question is what they are going to pay, and what kind of lives they will allow people to lead. This will be a big issue for how broad a middle class we are going to have.’’
On one point there’s broad agreement: Of 8 million-plus jobs lost to the recession — in fields such as manufacturing, real estate, and financial services — many, perhaps most, aren’t coming back.
In their place will be jobs in health care, information technology, and statistical analysis. Some of the new positions will require complex skills or higher education. Others won’t — but they won’t pay much, either.
