“As a result of this policy, there are going to be fewer plans offered in 2011,’’ said Bonnie Washington, a senior analyst with Avalere Health, which produced the study. “There is still going to be robust choice for beneficiaries, but those who have to change plans could experience some disruption and inconvenience.’’
While seniors would not lose Medicare coverage, they could see changes in their premiums and copayments.
Medicare officials dismissed the Avalere estimate without offering their own number. “Anybody who is producing that kind of analysis is simply guessing,’’ said Jonathan Blum, deputy administrator for Medicare.
Washington said the analysis used Medicare’s specifications.
For example, Medicare has already notified insurers that they will no longer be able to offer more than one basic drug plan in any given location. Several major prescription plans, including CVS-Caremark and AARP, offered two basic options throughout the country this year, Washington said. Eliminating that particular kind of duplication would force 2.75 million beneficiaries to find new coverage, according to Avalere’s estimate.
When other changes are taken into account, as many as 3.7 million Medicare recipients may have to switch, the analysis concluded. That’s about 20 percent of the 17.5 million enrolled in stand-alone drug plans.
Founded by a former Clinton administration budget official, Avalere serves industry and government clients with in-depth research on Medicare and Medicaid.
Leslie Norwalk, former Medicare chief, said the change might make things easier for people signing up for a drug plan the first time, but harder for those already in the program.
“If you’re in a plan that you like and you have to change it, it will be disruptive,’’ said Norwalk, acting administrator under President George W. Bush. “It depends on how [Medicare] handles it to try to make it as seamless as possible.’’
