Auto sales said to slow in June

Three firms that track auto sales predict automakers will report a sales decline of anywhere from 9.5 to 12 percent from May to June when they turn in their figures tomorrow. A double-digit decline would be the biggest monthly drop since January.

There is good news for shoppers: If sales keep falling, automakers will be more tempted to try to lure car buyers in with low-interest financing, rebates, and sweet lease deals.

The US economy has been sending mixed messages for months, but lately the signs are worse. Last week, the government lowered its estimate for first-quarter economic growth because people spent less than previously thought.

Unemployment has been stuck around 10 percent all year. While the pace of layoffs has slowed, the number of people seeking first-time unemployment benefits is about the same as in January. And home sales fell last month.

All this makes potential car buyers uneasy. “People are just nervous about signing up for a three-year loan, so I think people who normally would’ve cycled out of a car a little sooner are deciding, ‘Hey, I’ll just drive this car for another year,’ ’’ said Tom Folliard, chief executive of used-car dealership chain CarMax Inc.

Automakers sold 1.1 million vehicles in May, the best month so far this year. J.D. Power and Associates, Truecar.com, and Edmunds.com predict June sales will drop below 1 million. At that number, sales would be well below a typical June over the past five years, which is 1.3 million, and far below the peak during that period of almost 1.7 million in 2005, according to Ward’s AutoInfoBank.

If the weakness continues, automakers will have to sell more to fleet buyers.

“With the recovery not progressing as expected, it’s gut-check time for the automotive industry,’’ said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting for J.D. Power.