International observers’ criticism of the 2004 presidential election lent significant weight to the Orange protests, which ended with a court-ordered revote in which Yanukovych was defeated by Viktor Yushchenko. This time, the observers’ imprimatur could undermine any call for protest.
Yanukovych had a lead of 3.2 percentage points, with 99.44 percent of the ballots counted. When all the votes have been counted, the Central Elections Commission will release the preliminary tally.
A Yanukovych victory would close a chapter in the country’s political history by ousting the pro-Western leadership of the past five years, which foundered because of internal divisions, fierce opposition from Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, and the collapse of the economy.
As president, Yanukovych would try to balance relations with Moscow against Europe, tilting to Moscow where his Orange Revolution predecessors tilted West. But his narrow mandate, Ukraine’s deeply divided society, and the moribund economy will limit his ability to implement desperately needed political changes.
In the view of many, the role of the presidency itself needs to be restored to the status it held before a compromise thrashed out between Yushchenko and his predecessor, Leonid Kuchma, stripped the presidency of much of its power. The settlement allowed for a way out of the political impasse created by the Orange revolt, but it left the presidency woefully prone to political blackmail at the hands of Parliament and the Cabinet.
The international monitors issued a joint statement saying “the professional, transparent, and honest voting and counting should serve as a solid foundation for a peaceful transition of power.’’
Joao Soares, head of the observation mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly, said the vote was an impressive display of a democratic election and a victory for the people of Ukraine. In comments apparently directed at Tymoshenko, he urged Ukraine’s politicians to heed the official vote tally.
