All of us have asked ourselves: “Why do other people often make such odd decisions?’’ The more honest among us go on to inquire: “Why do I often make such odd decisions?’’ Freud was once thought to have some answers, but his theories are now in deep eclipse. Currently, three of the foremost contenders for successfully explaining our species’ folly and weirdness are game theory, complexity theory, and evolutionary psychology. Here are three lively and well-written books, each offering an introduction to one of these new approaches to human strangeness.
Why we do the things we do
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s “The Predictioneer’s Game’’ is a profoundly irritating book. This, I hasten to say, has nothing to do with the book’s quality. It is full of stimulating examples and clear explanations. Nor is it the author’s personality: Bueno de Mesquita is genial and - even though most of the book’s case studies tell of the triumphs of his consulting company - not at all self-important. But he has done, by my lights, the unforgivable: He has challenged one of my cherished beliefs. I am a moralist, and he suggests, with distressing plausibility, that moralists are superfluous.
The author is an expert in game theory. Over the years, Bueno de Mesquita’s assignments have involved getting a corporate client off a legal hook; helping a retiring CEO engineer with the selection of a successor; predicting the outcome of the Oslo negotiations between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization; picking the next Chinese and Pakistani heads of state; persuading the North Koreans to eliminate their nuclear weapons; and saving Earth from global warming. In approaching such problems the game theorist asks four questions: Who has an interest in the decision? What outcome does each want? How important is it to each? How much influence can each exert? Every question is assigned a numerical answer; the numbers are plugged into an algorithm, then fed into a computer; and the result, however counterintuitive, represents Bueno de Mesquita’s best forecast of how various parties will act and what will happen.
The game theorist does not ask: What should happen? The premise is that “people won’t cooperate or coordinate with each other unless it is in their individual interest. No one in the game-theory world willingly takes a personal hit just to help someone out . . . we’re [all] looking out for numero uno.’’ Generosity, solidarity, self-sacrifice - not to mention an overmastering passion for beauty - do not seem to exist in this world.
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