Looked at together, the reports the government issued yesterday signaled that the final quarter of 2009 at least got off to a decent start. And holiday sales should be slightly better than last year’s figures, which were the worst since at least 1969.
The number of newly laid-off workers filing applications for unemployment aid fell by 35,000 last week to 466,000, the Labor Department said. It marked the fewest new filings since September of last year.
Jobless claims would still have to drop to near 400,000 for several weeks to signal actual growth in employment. Companies have slowed the pace of layoffs, but most aren’t ready to ramp up hiring.
Another report showed that Americans stepped up their shopping in October. Consumer spending rose 0.7 percent, after a 0.6 percent drop in September, the Commerce Department said.
It was the best showing since a 1.3 percent jump in August, when the government’s Cash for Clunkers rebate program enticed people to buy cars.
Spending on costly manufactured goods, such as cars and appliances, led the way in October. Americans also spent more on gas, food, clothes, and services.
Despite the sudden burst in spending, analysts predict it won’t be nearly as energetic the rest of this quarter. And concerns remain that spending will slow early next year.
Most of all, rising joblessness will likely weigh on shoppers. The nation’s unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent, is expected to keep climbing into 2010.
“The good news eases worries about a relapse, but it has to be taken with a bit of caution,’’ said Oscar Gonzalez, economist at John Hancock. “The labor market remains quite weak. That, to me, is what will really affect how consumers behave in the coming months and how the recovery fares.’’
The economy has lost 7.3 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 and is expected to lose 145,000 more in November. It would have to add 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
Some optimism was raised by a separate report yesterday that sales of new homes rose last month to the highest level in more than a year. All the strength came from a big increase in sales in the South. Sales in all other regions dropped.
