The Patriots are tied for third in the league in turnover differential at plus-8 with the unbeaten Saints, and hold a slight advantage over undefeated Indianapolis (plus-7), Sunday night’s opponent.
In each of the last four seasons, the teams with the five best turnover margins made the playoffs, except St. Louis in 2006. Last season, the Patriots were tied for 15th with a plus-1 margin and missed the playoffs. In 2006 and ’07, the Patriots ended the regular season in the top five in that category.
In a rivalry in which the last four meetings have been determined by 7 points or fewer, turnovers could be the difference Sunday.
In 2007, the Patriots sealed a 24-20 victory against the Colts when Peyton Manning fumbled after he was sacked, allowing Rosevelt Colvin to recover the ball at the Indianapolis 46-yard line with 2:34 remaining. The Patriots then ran out the clock.
The season before, interceptions and other miscues in the regular-season meeting and AFC Championship game ended comeback drives for the Patriots.
This season, the Patriots have limited their turnovers. Tom Brady has thrown just five interceptions and has fumbled twice after being sacked.
New England running backs have not lost a fumble this season, and it’s not because of a lack of opportunities. The Patriots have run the ball 221 times, 10th-most in the league.
Against Baltimore in Week 4, Brady was sacked, he fumbled, and the Ravens recovered the ball in the end zone for a touchdown. The Patriots managed to secure a 27-21 victory despite the miscue, but it was the first time this season the Patriots turned the ball over via a fumble.
The following week, Brady was sacked again and fumbled, which the Broncos recovered. The play did not result in points for Denver, but the Broncos pulled out a 20-17 win in overtime.
While the Patriots’ offense is limiting turnovers, the defense is doing its part to challenge opponents. The Patriots have seven interceptions and have recovered eight fumbles.
“[Turnovers] are big,’’ said linebacker Tully Banta-Cain. “Getting the ball to our offense, knowing how great our offense is, you can’t ask for anything better in a game, and that really swings the momentum on our side when we’re getting the ball to our guys and we’re not on the field that much.