GENEVA - The World Health Organization said yesterday a spike in swine flu cases in Australia may push it to finally announce the first flu pandemic in 41 years. It also expressed concern about an unusual rise in severe illness from the disease in Canada.
WHO's flu chief Keiji Fukuda said the agency wanted to avoid "adverse effects" if it announces a global outbreak of swine flu. Fukuda said people might panic or that governments might take inappropriate actions if WHO declares a pandemic.
Some flu experts think the world already is in a pandemic and that WHO has caved in to country requests that a declaration be postponed.
"On the surface of it, I think we are in phase 6," or a pandemic, said Margaret Chan, WHO's director-general.
Chan said it was important to verify reports that the virus is becoming established outside North America before declaring a pandemic. "The decision to make a phase 6 announcement is a heavy responsibility, a responsibility that I will take very seriously, and I need to be convinced that I have indisputable evidence," she said.
Chan said she will hold a conference call with governments today to verify some of the reports she has received before making a formal announcement. "Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement," she told reporters in Geneva.
WHO said the virus has infected 26,563 people in 73 countries and caused 140 deaths. Most of the cases have been in North America, but Australia also has seen a sharp increase in recent days.
In most of the 73 countries, the new H1N1 virus has triggered only mild illness. But the fact that some of the deaths have occurred in otherwise healthy adults has prompted WHO to classify the outbreak as "moderate" for the time being.
Wealthy countries such as the United States, Canada, and Britain have large stockpiles of antivirals used to treat swine flu, but many developing countries have no supplies of the drugs and could be more vulnerable to the virus, given their struggle with widespread problems such as AIDS, malnutrition, and malaria.
