With Matsuzaka, long time coming

May 22, 2009|Bob Ryan, Globe Columnist

Just for fun, why not start the game with the bases loaded?

Dice-K's back.

And why not just give the leadoff man - whoever it is, since Jose Reyes is injured again - a 3-2 count?

Dice-K's back.

Tell the babysitter you might be a little late.

Dice-K's back.

Last seen in a major league game April 14, Daisuke Matsuzaka will be on the Fenway Park mound when the Mets arrive tonight for the start of a three-game interleague series.

He's been MIA for a month to get his right shoulder strengthened. He has made two starts for the Red Sox this season.

One was bad. The other was sad.

He gave up nine hits, four earned runs, three home runs, and three walks in 5 1/3 innings against the Rays April 9. Five days later he had a truly horrific first inning at Oakland, giving up five hits and five earned runs and walking two. The Red Sox wisely decided to shut him down and get him started on a rehab program, the results of which we will see (to whatever degree) this evening.

So, if you're Terry Francona, a.k.a. The Skipper, are you curious? Are you excited? What?

"Probably a little of both," Francona said. "Losing any [starting] pitcher is not a lot of fun. But I am excited because if his shoulder is strengthened, regardless of what we see [tonight] - and I hope he's great - if he's strong, he's a very good pitcher."

Is, or can be? That is the real question. He was a very in-and-out 15-12 his first year. He had enough stuff to strike out 201. But he also had enough rocky spots to have a 4.40 ERA and to surrender 25 home runs. There were many shaky outings.

Last year he was, to say the least, an unusual 18-game winner. Yes, he had the 18 W's, but no starting pitcher in the 20th or 21st centuries has won 18 while throwing so few innings - 167 2/3. Really, now. Even in this day and age, where the concept of what constitutes a superior pitching performance has been so drastically altered, does a man who cannot average six innings per start deserve to go 18-3?

Dice-K is a good major league pitcher. But he has his own way of doing things, refusing to give into hitters at any time. Whatever the Japanese word for "nibbler" happens to be, that's Dice-K. He runs up high, early pitch counts, and it's a rare game when he answers the bell for the seventh. They're usually happy when he can get out there for the sixth.

Meanwhile, just in time for Dice-K's return, Tom Verducci of SI.com has dusted off a fascinating study he first published April 21. He took a look at the four most prominent pre-Matsuzaka Japanese starters who emigrated to these shores: Hideki Irabu, Kaz Ishii, Hideo Nomo, and Masato Yoshii. What he found was that there was a frightening and irreversible drop-off in performance in Year 3 for three of them and a noticeable drop in performance for the fourth (Nomo).

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