Time to put Celtics in their place

Celtics find out draft slot tonight

May 22, 2007|Shira Springer, Globe Staff

Reached between AAU games over the weekend, Danny Ainge sounded like a man already suffering from draft fatigue. Watching his sons play basketball -- not scouting the 2010 NBA draft class -- Ainge still felt the anticipation building for tonight's NBA draft lottery in Secaucus, N.J. He has heard endless debates about whether Greg Oden or Kevin Durant would be a better No. 1 pick, he has seen the odds repeatedly dissected, and he has traveled the world looking at top prospects in recent months.

Tonight Ainge will learn whether his Celtics, who had the second-worst record in the NBA this season, can select Oden or Durant with one of the first two picks. If not, he will move down his list to names such as 6-foot-9-inch North Carolina forward Brandan Wright, 6-10 Florida forward/center Al Horford, 6-11 Florida forward/center Joakim Noah, 6-11 Chinese center Yi Jianlian, 6-9 Florida forward Corey Brewer, and 7-2 Georgetown center Roy Hibbert.

The Celtics can drop no lower than the No. 5 spot, virtually guaranteeing them a future impact player from a deep draft class, though the prospect to be selected later may not be the hottest name right now.

"We're going to get a good player," said Ainge. "There are a lot of good players in this draft, a lot of 19- and 20-year-olds we're projecting [to be impact players].

"Not many people thought Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce would be impact players when they were drafted."

NBA commissioner David Stern said recently, "I think it would be nice for the Celtics to improve themselves. I think it would be good for the team, but I can look at 30 teams and wind up saying the same thing. I do know there are players that are going to go at the 10th position this year, I am reliably informed, that are going to be impact players."

If Ainge and Stern sound like men spouting the company line and tempering expectations in the process, they have good reason to do so. While the Celtics would land the first or second pick in a perfect world, they have the best chance of receiving the No. 4 selection (31.9 percent). Consider these additional facts: In the 17 years since the NBA switched to a weighted lottery, the team with the worst or second-worst record received the top pick only 29 percent of the time; 53 percent of the time, teams in positions 3 through 5 have gotten the top pick.

If the Celtics don't leave Secaucus with the No. 1 or No. 2 pick, talk will turn from Oden and Durant to trade scenarios. While the draft class appears to be stocked with talent, it may make more sense for the Celtics to part with a pick that translates into Wright, Horford, or Yi; they already have more than enough young players. Adding a high-caliber veteran could be a better move at this juncture. Jermaine O'Neal or Kevin Garnett, anyone?