He's been struck by a bolt of enlightening

January 14, 2007|Dan Shaughnessy, Globe Columnist

SAN DIEGO -- I really wanted to hop on the Flying Elvis bus. I really wanted to work another few football weeks, typing with "Patriot #1" foam fingers on each hand.

But I am a child no more and so I must put away childish things. Much as it hurts, there's no going with the heart over the head this time. And so I must tell you that the San Diego Chargers are going to beat the Patriots at Qualcomm Stadium today (take comfort in the knowledge that I am usually wrong in these matters and feel free to rain abuse down on my big head if I am mistaken).

Like my esteemed colleague, Mr. Ryan (the guy is the best -- he should try going on television sometime), I too was blinded by the (Matt) Light when I listened to Patriots fans and New England talk-show pilots discussing today's marquee matchup early in the week. Last Sunday's win over the Jets brought back some of those magic feelings of New Orleans, Houston, and Jacksonville and it was easy to make a case for another Super Bowl run. No reason these Patriots couldn't be like the Bill Russell-Sam Jones 1968-69 Celtics, who finished fourth during the regular season but circled the old wagons for one last championship lap.

For a while I found myself buying into the Schottenheimer-will-blow-it theory. The guy hasn't won a playoff game since Tom Brady was a junior in high school. At the same time, I signed on to the notion that Bill Belichick will devour a playoff rookie quarterback. Really. Philip Rivers vs. Bill Belichick? Rivers vs. Tom Brady? Belichick vs. (gulp) Marty?

But . . . I have been out here in unseasonably chilly Southern California for a few days (a local news anchor had a lightning bolt on her blouse when she read into the prompter Friday), and it's painfully clear the Patriots are going to finish their season at the old Jack Murphy ballpark tonight. The Chargers are simply too good. That's why just about everyone outside the radio range of Gil and Gino believes San Diego will play host to the AFC Championship next weekend.

Let's start with San Diego's 14-2 record. Had the Bolts managed a couple of well-timed field goals in their two defeats, we might be comparing them to the 1972 Miami Dolphins -- the only team in NFL history to go undefeated. The Chargers are unbeaten at home and they are home today, playing with an extra week of rest.

San Diego scored 249 points in eight home games and outscored opponents, 492-303, overall. The Chargers have the best red zone offense in football and scored 176 fourth-quarter points.

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